Election Atlas · ecological inference
Hispanic voters moved 22 points right in 2024.
The Election Atlas estimates how each demographic group voted, from the whole country down to single Census block groups, using certified returns, Census data and post-election surveys.
- Elections
- 1,073
- President, Senate and House, 2008–2024
- Block groups
- 238,401
- in 3,143 counties, all 50 states and DC
- Groups
- 8
- by race, ethnicity and education
Presidential margin by group, 2020 to 2024
Hispanic
D+8 from D+30
Black
D+65 from D+79
Asian
D+19 from D+31
Multiracial
D+5 from D+16
White, no degree
R+30 from R+27
White, college
D+9 from D+10
All voters
R+2 from D+4
Open the atlas
Margin, vote shift and turnout for every group, county and block group.
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Archive · 2026 elections
2026 Midterm Simulator
Archived A joint model of every House, Senate and governor race, fitted to Kalshi and Polymarket order books.
State Legislatures 2026
Archived Control odds for every chamber that was up in 2026, with district maps and a scenario picker.